What does the collapse of Germany’s governing coalition mean for the legalisation of cannabis?

German politics is experiencing one of its most tense and decisive moments in recent years. The breakdown of the tripartite government coalition has plunged the Bundestag into a crisis that could lead to early elections at the beginning of next year. Not only does this situation have implications for the political stability of the country, but it also threatens key reforms, including the recent legalisation of cannabis, which is one of the most emblematic but also most controversial measures of this term.

On 6th November 2024, amid a major escalation of political tensions that had lain dormant for months, the German chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed the finance minister, Christian Lindler (of the Free Democratic Party). This move was aimed at preparing the ground for a vote of no confidence in the Bundestag in January, and for early elections on 23 February 2025, which will likely result in a significant shift of power towards parties that have openly supported reversing the cannabis reforms less than a year after they were implemented.

Following the 2021 elections, the German federal traffic light coalition (named after the traditional colours of the three parties) was formed between the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, with Olaf Scholz (SDP) as chancellor. The SDP and the Greens have historically been on the left of the political spectrum, whereas the FDP had previously supported right-wing conservative parties.

However, current opinion polls suggest that the three coalition parties combined will get fewer votes than the centre-right, which is currently made up of opposition parties such as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU); its Bavarian partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU); and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

These parties have repeatedly argued that the legalisation of cannabis sends “the wrong message” to society, increasing risks for young people and overloading public health and security systems. In fact, the CDU/CSU have alluded to their party’s intentions to reverse the cannabis reform on several occasions. “We don’t want to smoke marijuana, we want security and order. We’ll implement this after the next federal election”.

Therefore, there’s a high possibility that cannabis reforms will be reversed or significantly modified following an early election. With the collapse of the coalition and a foreseeable shift in the balance of power in the Bundestag, the future of legal cannabis in Germany hangs by a thread.

What does this mean for Germany’s cannabis policy?

The CDU has long held an interest in reversing the cannabis reforms. Although it is highly unlikely that cannabis will be fully penalised once again, much more restrictive measures may be applied if they come to power.

But experts from the German cannabis industry believe that the sector will continue to move in the right direction regardless of the outcome of the elections, since much progress has already been made and it may no longer be feasible to reverse the trend. As the CanG cannabis law (which removed the plant from the list of narcotics and made it semi-legal for adult use) has already come into force, reversing these changes will take a long time and will be controversial for a government facing a series of major economic and social crises.

If this were the case, the CDU would first have to form a coalition with one of the three parties in the former traffic light coalition. Furthermore, a total withdrawal of the CanG law, which was implemented back in April, would become a real logistical nightmare. Even the most reactionary politicians wouldn’t really have the time or motivation to do so.

Having said that, if the government changes towards a centre-right spectrum, restrictions could be imposed on both cannabis clubs and the general decriminalisation of marijuana. While reforms currently in place are less likely to be repealed, reforms that have not yet been implemented may be more susceptible to political change, and it seems increasingly unlikely that they will become laws. This includes Pillar 2, which involves more complex regulatory frameworks and business activities, and was expected to include the launch of pilot projects for adult sales in the style of the Swiss.

Nonetheless, there are still grounds for optimism. Recent developments suggest that Pillar 2 could be enacted without the need for new legislation, but rather through the existing CanG law. This approach could speed up the process and accelerate the launch of these pilot projects. By using the existing legal framework, the German government could avoid a politically complex process, which could allow for earlier experimentation with different legalisation models. But it’s not clear whether or when a new government might address these issues.

The reclassification of hemp and medical cannabis

Moreover, the crucial and hard-fought hemp legalisation law, which is currently in an administrative process, is also now under threat. Germany is lagging far behind in Europe and the world when it comes to the cultivation, research, and use of industrial hemp. The Bundestag therefore needs to adopt the law for the liberalisation of hemp as soon as possible to provide legal certainty for both farmers and the whole industry, and to make Germany competitive once again in this area.

On the other hand, the reclassification of medical cannabis is in full line with the wishes of the CDU and remains one of the most promising sectors in Germany. For the opposition, the party itself had called for easier access to medical cannabis long before the reclassification became a reality. Accessible and affordable health care is the common denominator of cannabis for all the parties that could be part of the new government. They argue that reducing legalisation to restrict it to medical cannabis would create a more manageable framework, potentially alleviating criminal influence on the market.

Impact on the cannabis sector

Political uncertainty is already having an impact on the rising cannabis sector in Germany. National and international companies that had started to invest in the German market now face an uncertain future. In addition, a reversal in legalisation could lead to significant economic losses – it is estimated that cannabis regulation could have generated more than €4.7 billion in annual tax revenue and savings in law enforcement costs. The return to a prohibitionist policy would not only negate these gains, but also strengthen the black market, which was one of the main objectives that the reform sought to combat.

Therefore, the collapse of the coalition in Germany marks a turning point not only for national politics but also for the future of cannabis around the world. The issue at stake is not only the fate of the recent reform, but also the message that Germany, as one of Europe’s leading economies, sends to the rest of the continent on how to approach the regulation of this substance.

For legalisation advocates, the next few weeks will be crucial. Mobilising public opinion, securing political support, and protecting the progress made will be key tasks to help prevent Germany from backing down in one of the most important debates of modern politics today: the role of cannabis in society.